Global Economy

Objective of our research on “global economy”

Recent advances in information and communication technology (ICT) such as the fifth-generation networks (5G), Internet of Things (IoT), big data and artificial intelligence (AI), etc., referred to as the Fourth Industrial Revolution, have accelerated globalization of the world economies and drastically changed the flows of “people, goods, money and information.” Advanced ICT has made possible the aggregation, refinement, and optimization of supply-chain information beyond national boundaries. As a result, we now see the emergence of companies with high economic rationality that dominate the global market.
On one hand, globalization shifted markets from local to global scales and increased wealth to an extraordinary scale; on the other hand, it has brought about uneven distribution of wealth, widening disparities, literacy and educational gaps. And the disclosure of individual purchase information has gone so far as, not only to enclose the customer, but to monitor the individuals themselves, extending the debate on human rights issues.

As such, in a world where social disruption deepens while economy expands through innovation, the research studies on “global economy” deals with not only a nation’s macroeconomic policy, but also an expanding range of research targets from global economy to the state of human activities.

Research areas

Economic theory, economic policy, trade policy, regional economy (China, etc.), AI and big data, agricultural policy and genome, medical economics, economic history, etc.

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Research Themes

Project Leader Research Director Daisuke KOTEGAWA
Research Objective

We will expand personal networks with the Asian Development Bank, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, and ministries of finance and central banks, and their affiliated research institutes, as well as universities in Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Laos etc., by holding symposiums when their leaders visit Japan.

Project Leader Research Director Kiyoyuki SEGUCHI
Research Objective

The Chinese economy is predicted to remain stable for the time being, although there are certain risk factors including the spread of COVID-19 infection and increasingly fierce conflict between the United States and China. The Chinese economy, however, is expected to begin transitioning from a rapid growth period to a stable growth period in and after the mid-2020s, and China's most important task is how it will carry out structural reforms prior to that while securing the stability of its macroeconomy. It is concerned that the risk factors involving the U.S.-China relation will affect them. Based on the abovementioned present situations, we will provide an easy-to-understand overview of the Chinese economy as a whole, paying attention to the interactions of the real factors.

Project Leader Research Director Kazuhito YAMASHITA
Research Objective

Forestry policy has justified protection of the forestry industry on the grounds of the multifunctionality of forestry. We will examine how the forestry industry should be and the need for an ideal forestry policy from the national economic point of view, not merely because the forestry industry should be protected for the sake of its own existence. Moreover, wood supplies would have increased and stumpage values of mountain owners would have stagnated, both due to the wrong policies developed based on the contentions that that the forestry should be identified as a growth industry and that the timber self-sufficiency rate should be increased; doing so would make reforestation, and eventually a stable supply of wood in the future, difficult. Based on these factors, we will examine ideal approaches for a sustainable forestry industry, as well as relevant forestry policy.

Project Leader Research Director Kazuhito YAMASHITA
Research Objective

The Abe administration degraded the agricultural policy system and increased agricultural protection, which were revealed in its substantial reinforcement of the rice-acreage reduction policy for the sake of pegging high rice prices or excessive compensatory measures against trade liberalization. In addition, the agricultural policies have been developed upon a false recognition of agriculture, because the distance between the people and agriculture has expanded. Agricultural economics research has avoided conducting policy analysis on the basis of cost-benefit analysis. We, therefore, will provide policy recommendations on agricultural policy reform from these viewpoints. At the same time, in order to use IT and AI for agriculture, it will be necessary to examine formation of an agricultural IT cooperative, and potential use of blockchain for traceability.

Project Leader Research Director Kazuhito YAMASHITA
Research Objective

Former President Trump adopted international trade policies that ignored the rules and disciplines of the World Trade Organization (WTO). As a result, the WTO’s legislative roles became dysfunctional, which made it difficult for the WTO to draw up new agreements. The Biden administration, however, would shift to policies focused on multinational frameworks. By inducing the United States to return to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), we can expect that certain provisions of the TPP Agreement will be incorporated into the WTO agreements and restore the WTO’s legislative and judicial functions. From these viewpoints, we will analyze these issues according to the ongoing movements and provide policy recommendations.

Project Leader Research Director Jun KURIHARA
Collaborator(s) Toshimichi NAGAIWA (Lt. General, JASDF, Retired), Tatsuya NISHIDA (Professor, Hiroshima City University), Anthony Saich (Professor, Harvard University)
Research Objective

How can Japan contribute to peaceful and stable international relations as the U.S.-China friction intensifies? We will examine it from the military perspective, as well as from the viewpoint of dual-use technology (DUT), and will exchange information with research institutes in Japan and abroad and disseminate our opinions, including policy recommendations.

Project Leader Research Director Keiichiro KOBAYASHI
Research Objective

We will study an ideal approach for new equity governance (governance by shareholders) to increase productivity and drive economic growth in Japan, and investigate how the capital market should be reformed for that purpose. We will explore the potential for the trinitarian management structure, which comprises shareholders, top management, and employees, with a special focus on employee shareholding.

Project Leader Research Director Keiichiro KOBAYASHI
Project Member(s) Senior Research Fellow Kazumasa OGURO ・ Senior Research Fellow Tatsuya TERAZAWA
Collaborator(s) Motohiro SATO (Professor, Hitotsubashi University), Yohei KOBAYASHI (Senior Analyst, Mitsubishi UFJ Research & Consulting Co.,Ltd.)
Research Objective

In response to the COVID-19 crisis, we will examine an ideal approach to reforming the system for providing healthcare services and ways to tackle it taking into account the deteriorated balance sheets of small- and medium-sized companies, and compile our practical policy recommendations and send them to related parties. We will also study policy issues surrounding the imminent super-aging society, and aim to compile and disseminate our policy recommendations. In addition, comprehensive analysis from various viewpoints will be performed on policy measures to be taken when public finance falls into a critical situation, as well as on countermeasures for extra long-term policy issues across generations. We will also consider the progress of artificial intelligence through deep learning and its involvement with the market and society, from the standpoint of inter-generational issues.

Project Leader Research Director Keiichiro KOBAYASHI
Project Member(s) Senior Research Fellow Tomoyuki NAKAJIMA ・ Senior Research Fellow Ryoji HIRAGUCHI ・ Senior Research Fellow Kozo UEDA ・ Research Fellow Daichi SHIRAI ・ Senior Research Fellow Masaru INABA ・ Senior Research Fellow Kengo NUTAHARA ・ Research Fellow Shuhei TAKAHASHI ・ Research Fellow Tomohiro HIRANO
Research Objective

We will analyze, mainly using theoretical modeling and computer simulations, each of the following subjects: deflationary balance, credit bubbles, non-performing loans, monetary theories and banking crises, and tail risks in fiscal crises and economic growth. Results of our analysis will be presented at academic conferences and seminars in Japan and abroad, and published in academic journals. We will host an Economic Conference twice a year by inviting Japanese and foreign cutting-edge researchers.

Project Leader Kentaro NAKAJIMA (Institute of Innovation Research, Hitotsubashi University)
Project Member(s) Research Director Tetsuji OKAZAKI
Collaborator(s) Yukiko SAITO(Waseda Univ.), Hiroyasu INOUE(University of Hyogo)
Research Objective

Innovations are essential to the sustained growth of the Japanese economy. This research is designed to build and analyze long-term micro data on patents, in particular to clarify the mechanisms by which innovation was created, as well as the effects of innovation policies.

Project Leader Research Director Tetsuji OKAZAKI
Collaborator(s) Koji SAKAI (Kyoto Sangyo University), Michiru SAWADA (Nihon University)
Research Objective

We will analyze the impact of banks on the efficiency of inter-regional fund allocation, and the impact of the central bank's supply of liquidity on the financial system and industry, using data from prewar Japan.

Project Leader Research Director Tetsuji OKAZAKI
Collaborator(s) Ken ONISHI (Federal Reserve Board), Naoki WAKAMORI (Tokyo University)
Research Objective

Japan’s electric power industry started developing in the early 20th century, driven by many dispersed companies, and has since formed a large network through mergers and business-to-business partnerships. Focusing on the electric power industry in prewar Japan, we analyze the expansion mechanism of this network and its implications, based on micro-data.

Project Leader Research Director Tetsuji OKAZAKI
Collaborator(s) Tomoko MATSUMOTO (Nagoya University)
Research Objective

We will quantitatively analyze and understand, based on micro-data, under what political and social backgrounds the long-term economic development of Japan since the prewar days has been accomplished, and how such economic development has in turn influenced the country’s political and social structures.

Project Leader Research Director Tetsuji OKAZAKI
Collaborator(s) Daisuke MIYAKAWA (Hitotsubashi Univ.), Toshiaki SHOJI (Seikei Univ.), Serguey BRAGUINSKY (University of Maryland)
Research Objective

Industrial and corporate organizations dynamically change in the process of economic development. We will study the internationalization of Japanese companies using data for each target company in the cotton-spinning industry since the end of the 19th century. In addition, issues such as the impacts of changes in the production units on people’s work styles, and growth of multiple-plant companies and management of them, will be explored.

Project Leader Research Director Tsutomu WATANABE
Project Member(s) Senior Research Fellow Takayuki MIZUNO ・ Senior Research Fellow Takaaki OHNISHI ・ Research Fellow Ryohei HISANO ・ Senior Research Fellow Hiroshi IYETOMI ・ Research Fellow Kota WATANABE
Collaborator(s) Atushi ISHIKAWA (Kanazawa Gakuin University), Shouji FUJIMOTO (Kanazawa Gakuin University), Didier Sornette (ETH Zurich), Yuichi Ikeda(Kyoto University), Takashi Iino(Niigata University), Yuichi KICHIKAWA(Niigata University)
Research Objective

We will collect large-scale business data and elucidate the mechanisms behind the economic behavior of businesses, financial institutions, households, government, etc. Specifically, the subjects of our analysis include economic networks (business-to-business and trade), demographics and asset value fluctuations.

Project Leader Research Director Tsutomu WATANABE
Project Member(s) Senior Research Fellow Takayuki MIZUNO ・ Senior Research Fellow Takaaki OHNISHI ・ Research Fellow Ryohei HISANO ・ Senior Research Fellow Hiroshi IYETOMI ・ Research Fellow Kota WATANABE ・ Senior Research Fellow Kozo UEDA
Collaborator(s) Jess DIAMOND (Hosei University), Tomoyoshi YABU (Keio University), Toshiaki SHOJI (Seikei University), David Weinstein (Columbia Univ), Jessie Handbury (Univ of Pennsylvania), Taehun Jung (Kyungpook National University)
Research Objective

We will elucidate the mechanisms by which product prices (prices of consumables, durable appliances, etc.) and real estate prices (condominium sales prices, rents, etc.) fluctuate. In particular, we aim to elucidate the mechanisms of inflation, deflation and real estate bubbles through an integrated understanding of the characteristics of fluctuations in individual prices and their aggregates (consumer price indices, real estate price indices, etc.).

Project Leader Research Director Kumiko OKAZAKI
Research Objective

We will analyze the current situation of international capital flows in China, and consider how it should be the capital transaction deregulation. Moreover, we will organize information on China's driving force to increase presence in the international financial market and their future challenges.

Project Leader Research Director Kumiko OKAZAKI
Research Objective

We will continue our studies on the soundness and sustainability of China's fiscal policy. In particular, we will deepen our examination into the development of infrastructure investment for filling regional gaps and the reform of the social security system under the aging population, with emphasis on allocation of roles between the central government and local governments and ideal approaches for securing financial resources.

Project Leader Research Director Kumiko OKAZAKI
Research Objective

China has been continuously working to reform its financial sector, such as through financial marketization, innovation, and opening of the financial markets, while coping with the problem of excessive debt. Recognizing these difficult tasks, we will analyze the current state of challenges facing the Chinese financial sector, and explore problem-solving paths by focusing on its improvement of efficiency, transparency, and risk management capabilities.

Research Fellows

(in Alphabetical Order)