The awarding of the Nobel Prize to Nihon Hidankyo suggests the outstanding capacity of Generation Z to contribute to peace

1. The Japanese harbor a strong anti-war consciousness

This year’s Nobel Peace Prize went to the Japan Confederation of A- and H-Bomb Sufferers Organizations (Nihon Hidankyo).

The awarding must have not only brought renewed attention to the need to abolish nuclear weapons but also prompted people around the world to take anew the cruel and inhuman nature of war to heart.

War kills people indiscriminately.

This is best symbolized by the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

It is important above all to take advantage of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize to mourn the victims of not only the nuclear genocides but all wars and to raise awareness against war itself.

Under its constitution, Japan advocates the renunciation of war. It takes a clear stance against war, let alone the use of nuclear weapons.

This stance is deep-rooted in the minds and hearts of all Japanese. Their anti-war consciousness is stronger than experts in other countries would imagine.

I feel such a difference in consciousness not least when I am in the US discussing the possibility of Japan playing a military role in a Taiwan contingency.

This perception is backed by the seventh World Values Survey (WVS), conducted from 2017 to 2020. Among other questions, the WVS asked men and women aged 18 or older in 77 countries whether they would be willing to fight for their country if there were a war involving it. An ultra-low percentage of Japanese respondents answered “yes.”

From 85 to 96 percent of respondents in the top ten countries on the list, including Vietnam and China, gave an affirmative answer.

The percentage was 34 to 42 for the bottom ten countries excluding Japan, which posted 13.2 percent, the lowest figure.

I do not think these findings show that the Japanese have a low level of patriotism.

I believe the Japanese would likely have a change of mind if Japan were involved in a war for some reason and their families and many of their close friends fell victim to it.

Nevertheless, the findings show the Japanese abhor war as they have enjoyed peace for 79 years since the end of World War II.

I believe most Japanese people share the principle that it is wrong to solve international disputes by resorting to war no matter what reason there might be.

This principle must have been shaped in large part by the fact that Japan was the victim of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

2. War deterrent 1: Mutual trust between Japan and the US

Such consciousness held by the Japanese notwithstanding, the world is still beset by war.

Wars in Ukraine and Gaza are taking civilian lives every day.

Images of such killings are broadcast worldwide. The scenes of carnage sadden many people and convince them that the inhuman act of resorting to war should not be tolerated.

Recent advancements in communications technology have allowed people to share information far more widely than ever before and to vividly recognize the horrors and cruelty of war.

Apparently, such images will result in fewer and fewer young people wanting to go to war of their own volition in many countries around the world.

Still, it seems that such a change in consciousness is not so widespread.

How can war be prevented then?

Relations between Japan, the US, and China may offer a hint.

It is no exaggeration to say that current US-China relations are at their worst since the end of WWII. One hundred years ago, a situation like this would have very likely invited an armed conflict between the two countries.

At the moment, however, few Americans or Chinese people consider instigating a war.

This is largely because both countries are big nuclear powers, making nuclear deterrence a factor.

There may be another reason why the people of both countries do not consider going to war.

When the Japanese economy rose rapidly from the 1980s to the 1990s, Japan-US relations worsened to a level similar to that of current US-China relations. Yet no one considered resorting to war.

The gap in economic power between Japan and the US was quite narrow back then compared to when the Pacific War broke out. To be sure, Japan put protection offered by the nuclear umbrella of the US at the center of its national defense under the Japan-US Security Treaty.

Japan did so to a large extent because the Japanese believed that was the right strategy.

If Japan had thought it should defend itself on its own without depending on the US, the Japan-US Security Treaty would not have provided a decisive deterrent.

Still, the Japanese vaguely believed that Japan-US relations were rock-solid and that Japan was protected by the US.

Behind their confidence in the US lie mutual understanding and trust established through social interactions between many Japanese and many Americans.

3. War deterrent 2: Mutual understanding between the US and China promoted by Chinese studying in the US

The current deterioration of US-China relations seems to suggest a weakening relationship of trust between the two countries.

Yet many Chinese study in the US and work for US companies although the number of Chinese students in the US has been on the decline since 2020 amid the recent deterioration of bilateral relations. The number fell from 370,000 in 2019 to 290,000 in 2023, according to a Record China article posted on January 29, 2024.

Still, the number of Chinese studying in the US is more than 20 times larger than the number of Japanese counterparts (which stood at 12,000 in 2022) although the population of China is ten times larger than that of Japan.

Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported on January 16, 2024 that the number of Chinese enrolled at seven of the top 10 US universities is on the rise, increasing from 9,500 in 2018 to 12,600 in 2022.

For comparison, only 600 Japanese are enrolled at these seven universities.

So many young Chinse go to the US for study and not a few of them land a job at US companies after graduation.

Such human interactions by so many Chinese elites cannot but give rise to mutual understanding between the US and China.

However, the narrative in Washington, D.C. is so overwhelmed by China hard-liners that little attention is paid to this fact.

It clearly differs from the narrative in other major cities in the US such as New York, Boston, and San Francisco.

Accordingly, every time US Congress imposes extreme restrictions on business relations between US and Chinese companies on account of economic security, the US business community takes harsh reprisals.

Consequently, policymakers have no choice but to ease such restrictions.

Just recently, it has revealed that the entity list regulations designed to restrict transaction with Chinese firms have loopholes (see my essay titled “There are loopholes of the United States’ hard-line policy toward China; trade reduction effects are disappointing” (the Japanese original first appeared on JBpress on September 18, 2024).

This fact alone shows that there already is an inseparable relationship between American businesspeople and their Chinese counterparts. It is too close to be severed under the pressure of foreign and security policy.

This strong tie is underpinned by many Chinese studying in the US and those working there after graduation, the numbers of whom remain at high levels.

After the end of WWII, Japan-US relations improved dramatically. Yet it is estimated that the number of Japanese studying in the US surpassed 10,000 in the second half of the 1970s and 20,000 in the second half of the 1980.

During the 1990s, it stayed above 40,000 but began to plummet in 2004, according to Funamori, Miho, Adjunct Associate Professor of Institutional Research, Evaluation Support Office , University of Tokyo, in “The Study-Abroad of Japanese and Japan's Economy: Did Japanese become inward-looking?” (in Japanese). (Dr. Funamori earned a PhD at the University of Tokyo.)

The number was as low as 18,000 in the pre-pandemic year of 2019 and 12,000 in 2022.

The surge in the number of Japanese going to the US for study about four decades ago was largely attributable to the then appreciation of the yen, which allowed Japanese to afford the costs involved.

The number of Chinese going to the US for study soared from 2008 onward, a phenomenon that almost coincided with the rapid appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the dollar.

While Japan experienced its surge of such students about forty years ago, China saw such an upsurge 15 to 16 years ago.

The number of Chinese who have studied in the US will continue to grow in such fields as politics, economy, and academic research back home.

In this light, the influence of Chinese with experience in interacting with Americans will continue to increase.

This must contribute to more mutual understanding and trust between the two countries.

4. War deterrent 3: More people-to-people exchanges thanks to the advancement of communications

Yet another factor for promoting mutual understanding among Japan, the US, and China is the advancement of communications.

Before the pandemic, people depended largely on e-mails and telephones as their means of telecommunication. The growing need for remote working during the pandemic popularized video calling in the world as this means of telecommunication proved to be far more convenient.

Its convenience decreases as the number of participants increases. But if the participants are few, they can communicate almost as if they are talking to each other in person.

Now, video calling provides an important means of promoting people-to-people exchange and mutual understanding.

Generation Z, who deftly use social media and the internet among other means of telecommunication, conduct people-to-people exchanges with special ease.

No one can stop Chinese who have studied in the US from continuing to get in frequent contact with their American friends after they return home.

This state of affairs cannot but promote mutual understanding between the two countries.

In 2050, young people born in 1990 will turn 60. An era will come when Generation Z takes center stage all over the world.

In that era, cross-border mutual understanding will be at a far deeper level than the current level.

It is extremely difficult to wage a war between countries across which many close friendships exist at every level of society and in every field.

It could not possibly be acceptable to see your close friends fall victim to war.

Expectations are high that in the coming era, broad-based mutual understanding and trust at the citizen level will serve as a new deterrent, in addition to the nuclear deterrence offered by the mass possession of nuclear weapons.

Such a new deterrent will surely emerge in the tripartite relationship among Japan, the US, and China by the middle of this century.