Destroying democracy and disregarding the rule of law: Can the Trump administration’s reckless actions be stopped?

1. Changing views on the Trump administration

From the beginning of last week, I visited the US for the third time this year. I went to Washington, D.C. and Boston, among other cities, to interview experts and intellectuals at universities, think tanks, and the likes to hear their views on the second Trump administration’s policymaking and delivery.

On my first US visit this year in late February, I met many experts, intellectuals, and media who were tossed around by President Donald Trump, who issued erratic executive orders like every day and gave press conferences after press conference right after his inauguration. They told me that they were worn out by having to follow his moves.

On my second visit to the US in late May, many seemed to be accustomed to his speech and behavioral patterns.

Almost all the experts and intellectuals said the second Trump administration is more unpredictable than his first administration in terms of policy management.

In addition, several experts opined that President Trump is driven by grievance (dissatisfaction with or anger at those who he feels are not adequately respectful of him).

On my third US visit this year, I felt a growing mood of resignation among experts and intellectuals. While they were getting used to Trump’s words, actions, and policies, they seemed to feel that their efforts to set him right were futile.

Behind such a mood is the fact that it is increasingly clear that Congress (the legislative branch) and the courts (the judicial branch) are failing to carry out their check-and-balance functions against the Executive Office of the President (the executive branch) as they are supposed to do.

Experts and intellectuals generally agree that the separation of powers, an essential prerequisite for the management of a democracy, is not working properly, allowing the second Trump administration to destroy US democracy.

2. Specific examples of the abuse of power by the Trump administration

Many specific examples of the problem mentioned above have been raised.

The US Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Department of Education have been established under laws passed by Congress. The authority to dismantle these institutions rests with Congress.

And yet, the Trump administration did dismantle the institutions by executive order. This goes against the Constitution, but Congress did not oppose it.

NVIDIA, a developer, designer and seller of semiconductors, as well as AMD (Advanced Micro Devices), a semiconductor manufacturer, is now required to pay to the US government 15% of the revenues from artificial intelligence (AI) chips they export to China.

This requirement is regarded as illegal, but Congress condones it rather than opposing it.

Reciprocal tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Japan and many other trade partners were judged unconstitutional by trial and appellate courts. But the Trump administration has appealed the case to the Supreme Court for deliberation.

Even if the Supreme Court supports the unconstitutional ruling by the lower court, the Trump administration will raise tariffs based on other legal grounds. It is predicted that reciprocal tariffs will be simply replaced by tariffs with different names.

This means that if the US government wants to restrict free trade, it can do so by any means.

In fact, various pressures from many corners of Washington that oppose free trade are disrupting the World Trade Organization, a champion of global free trade.

Other examples of Trump’s abuse of power, if not illegal, include the removal of top-level officers of the US military and the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the demand for the resignation of an FRB governor, interventions in the personnel affairs of media outlets and businesses that support DEI (diversity, equity, and inclusion). And the list goes on.

3. Why don’t checks and balances work?

It is said that all these problems with the Trump administration boil down to the disregard for the rule of law.

A majority of intellectuals in Europe say that they cannot share values with the Trump administration, which is destroying democracy and disregarding the rule of law.

Such a view against the Trump administration is shared by experts and intellectuals in the US as well.

Still, Congress and courts seem unwilling to adequately carry out the check-and-balance function. Why? The following reasons are pointed out.

The governing Republican Party now assumes a majority in both houses of Congress. If Republican legislators challenge the policy of the Trump administration, they will likely lose their seats in the next election because their campaigns in the primaries will be disrupted in many ways.

Afraid of that risk, many Republican legislators dare not oppose the policies championed by the Trump administration.

The opposition Democratic Party, on the other hand, can say no to the Trump administration. But because Democrats are a minority in both houses of Congress, they cannot sway any decision made by Congress.

For their part, courts are performing the check-and-balance function to some extent. Trial and appellate courts ruled the Trumps reciprocal tariffs to be unconstitutional.

However, six of the nine justices of the Supreme Court are conservative, three of whom were appointed by the first Trump administration. They tend to make decisions leaned toward the Republican Party.

Accordingly, the Supreme Court is demonstrating a strong tendency to respect the intent of President Trump.

This state of affairs is raising concerns that the Supreme Court will not hand down a clear unconstitutional ruling as it cannot be expected to fully perform the check-and-balance function.

In sum, neither Congress nor courts have a strong will to stop the Trump administration from running amok, at least at the moment.

My impression is that, faced with this state of affairs, many experts and intellectuals in the US have no hope to correct these policies for the time being.

4. Declining economic indicators and the outlook

The Trump administration’s policy management, which lack strategy, rationality, and consistency, are now beginning to show side effects.

The year-on-year change in the consumer price index has been on the rise after hitting the bottom at plus 2.3% in May. In August, it reached plus 2.9%.

Nonfarm payrolls grew by 79,000 in July but they fell to only 22,000 in August, far fewer than the projected figure of 75,000.

In short, economic indicators are beginning to worsen in both prices and employment. If these trends become more pronounced, the approval ratings of the Trump administration will decline among the general public.

In fact, the ratings fell from 47% at the inauguration to 40% in August, according to a Gallup survey.

Many analysts predict that if the economic situation worsens, the approval ratings will further decline to the extent that Republicans in the House of Representatives will lose the midterm elections next year.

At present, the opposition Democratic Party is a minority in both houses. Accordingly, congressional opposition against the Trump administration is weak and checks and balances are not working properly. Expectations are that this state of affairs will improve after the midterm elections in November next year.

5. Views on Japan’s stance on the US

During my latest visit to the US, several experts and intellectuals there asked me why the Japanese government and media are so soft on the Trump administration, compared to their counterparts in other countries.

In fact, I have been asking myself the same question since the beginning of Trump’s second term in office.

I would add that the Japanese government and media largely fail to adequately criticize the Biden administration’s ideology-oriented policies that are deepening global divisions and restricting moves to promote the free trade regime. Rather, they seem to accept these policies.

Experts and intellectuals in Europe have been condemning this for several years. Now the US counterparts are following suit.

Because of its dependence on US defense capabilities for its security, Japan may have no choice but to pay some consideration to the wishes of the US.

However, if Japan continues its stance to condone Washington’s moves to destroy democracy and repress free trade, which fundamentally go against Japan’s national interests, Japan may lose the confidence of the international community.

There is no question that Japan–US relations matter, but the Trump administration is only part of the US.

In fact, many experts and intellectuals in the US hope that Japan will say what it should say.

For a long-term trusting relationship between Japan and the US, it is important for the Japanese government, media, intellectuals, and experts to stick to their principles even though that might hit a sore spot for the Trump administration.

At stake is what stance Japan, including its private citizens, takes toward the US, its most important ally.