Takaichi earns kudos for following Trump ‘manual’

Despite skepticism from political commentators, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi performed admirably, doing a splendid job of hosting U.S. President Donald Trump this week.
Considering the meeting came just a week into Takaichi’s term, this was no small feat. In particular, the new prime minister’s ease and eloquence aboard the USS George Washington aircraft carrier stood out as refreshingly different from what we typically see in Japanese leaders, offering a glimpse of what could be the dawn of a new era.
Japanese media outlets have been overflowing with “praise for the new prime minister,” eagerly reporting details such as “Trump and the prime minister calling each other by their first names” and “the establishment of a relationship of trust” between the two leaders.
Yet, despite Takaichi’s impressive debut, I cannot bring myself to celebrate unreservedly. Several conditions must still be met before the Trump-Takaichi relationship can truly be said to have entered a “golden age.”
When then-candidate Takaichi won the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election on Oct. 4, I wrote the following in the Sankei Shimbun:

• In politics, one must shift from “campaign mode” to “governance mode.” The second administration of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Takaichi’s mentor, excelled at this.
• Catering too much to one’s political base leads to diplomatic trouble, while suppressing one’s beliefs risks alienating conservative supporters.
• The tactics for winning elections differ entirely from those for governing. Shouldn’t the new LDP president, Takaichi, shift gears toward “governance” and, if necessary, “change like a wise person who adapts to reality”?
• I hope her supporters will also accept that such “change” is essential to effective governance.

Fortunately, since taking office, Takaichi seems to have adjusted her approach wisely and skillfully. She has shown prudence by setting aside her personal views on visiting Yasukuni Shrine and other “history issues,” while displaying enthusiasm for shuttle diplomacy with the South Korean president and for a possible meeting with the Chinese leader. In short, she has fully embraced a realistic “governance mode.”
Her “safe driving” approach was one reason this Japan-U.S. summit went so smoothly.
But playing it safe is not enough when dealing with Trump. To earn the trust of a political figure like him — and to advance Japan’s national interests by effectively leveraging American power — one must carefully decipher Trump’s “instruction manual.”
This manual, however, is a phantom document: Governments around the world, including Washington itself, have been searching for it in vain since 2016.
I lack the knowledge and experience to write that manual in full, but based on observation, I believe its essence can be summarized in four points:

• Skillfully appeal to Trump’s unconventional sense of self-respect
• Never contradict him — let him believe Japan’s interests are his own
• Convince him you are a counterpart worth “dealing” with
• Never flinch, no matter how erratic his decisions may seem

Trump’s ego is, in a word, unusual. Even flattery that would normally seem excessive or insincere is surprisingly effective with him. The Japanese side employed this strategy thoroughly at the recent summit. But flattery alone cannot build trust. In politics, nothing substitutes for “walking the talk” — delivering on your promises.
Contradicting Trump is taboo. One must first accept his words at face value, then persistently work to show that what benefits Japan also benefits the United States — and, most importantly, Trump himself. This process must be repeated constantly; his memory for details is short. In this regard, the late Prime Minister Abe — often called the “Trump whisperer” — demonstrated remarkable patience.
For Trump, every relationship is transactional. If one “deals” with him, one must be willing to make what he sees as concessions. If one wants to gain something from him, one must be ready to engage in give-and-take. Trump’s words and actions are characterized by two things: Everything is not only transactional; everything is situational. Policy reversals are therefore routine. One must not be shaken by each sudden turn.
It’s early in their relationship, but Japan-U.S. relations under Takaichi and Trump have so far met only the first condition of this “manual.” History offers a cautionary tale: when Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama told President Barack Obama to “Trust me” in 2009 regarding the relocation of the Futenma U.S. Marine base in Okinawa, he ultimately failed to deliver — damaging trust between Tokyo and Washington.
The Japanese media often ask shallow questions such as, “Did they call each other by their first names?” or “Was personal trust established?” But genuine trust is not built in a single meeting — it must be tested and proven over time.
Prime Minister Takaichi now faces that test. Whether she can follow through on her promises will determine whether her relationship with Trump truly ushers in a new era for Japan-U.S. relations.
One thing is certain: The Takaichi administration’s diplomacy toward Washington will face many trials in the months and years to come.