Has Japan’s Diet finally begun its ‘Knessetization’?

Until the first half of last week, Japan’s political pundits were predicting the future of a new coalition government based on the assumption that Sanae Takaichi, the new Liberal Democratic Party president, would become the next prime minister.

But last Friday's “midlife divorce” drama between the LDP and Komeito leaders drastically changed the situation once again. Currently, the Japanese media is inundated with shallow analyses, focused solely on “who will become the next prime minister” — and missing the bigger picture.

My concern right now, however, isn't about selecting the next prime minister or the success or failure of a new coalition. My focus is entirely on whether Japan's parliament will finally begin to “Knessetize” (referring to Israel's parliament, and by extension, unstable coalition politics dominated by multiple small parties). If it does, how long will this last and will Japan's domestic political stability ultimately be restored? In this context, immediately after the Upper House election in late July, I wrote the following in these pages:

“Japan's parliamentary politics is ... facing uncertainty, particularly its Cabinet system. If things continue as they are, Japan's Parliament may rapidly be ‘Knessetized,’ that is, and with apologies to my friends in Israel, become increasingly unstable. ...

“In the Knesset, the instability of such coalitions often leads to short-lived governments and frequent general elections. Could this trend also emerge in Japan, potentially hindering long-term policy decisions and actions while creating political vacuums? ...

“Will Japan’s parliamentary politics, like in the West, decline amid rising populism and anti-elite sentiment that panders to the masses? Or will it undergo a new political realignment and build a distinct form of parliamentary democracy?”

Has the Knessetization of Japan's parliament progressed further than I anticipated? Is Japan now entering an era of unstable coalition governments formed through the shifting alliances of numerous small parties? At this time, I wish to analyze the current state of Japan's Diet by comparing it to the Israeli parliament. Why do so many small parties emerge in the first place? Let us begin by considering this question.

Unlike the Anglo-American system of single-seat districts, countries adopting proportional representation tend structurally to have an increasing number of political parties. However, Israel's parliament, which adopted proportional representation, did not necessarily start out with a fragmented state of small parties. At the time of Israel's founding, a center-left coalition by the Mapai Party, which later became the core of the Labor Party, held overwhelming dominance. This point closely resembles Japan, where center-right LDP governments were the mainstream after 1955.

This situation began to change thereafter. The primary reasons were likely shifts in the international strategic environment as well as the diversification of voters' political awareness. In Israel's case, the 1977 election saw the right-wing Likud Party become the largest party, shifting the axis of coalition governments from the center-left to the center-right. Subsequently, a pattern emerged where the two major forces, the Labor Party and Likud, alternated in forming coalition governments.

In Japan's case, the end of the Cold War and the accompanying shift in voter consciousness were major factors. In the early 1990s, the LDP temporarily lost power, and “political reform” — including the introduction of a single-seat district system and proportional representation system combined — was implemented, marking Japan's entry into a full-fledged multiparty era. However, the proliferation of small parties was not solely caused by the proportional representation system.

Generally, Israeli parliamentary politics has been described as fluid and unstable, characterized by the proliferation of small parties with differing ideological stances. However, the deepening of domestic divisions occurred after 2000, following the stalling of peace negotiations on the Palestinian issue and the intensification of conflicts with Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. With the prospects of coexistence with Palestinians fading, the rise of hard-line religious ideologies was likely inevitable.

Compounding this was the global surge in “conservative populism,” now becoming a worldwide trend. The "IT revolution" and "new capitalism" widened economic disparities, creating a pool of discontent and anger among the “forgotten people.” This discontent found an outlet in Europe's “far-right” movements and the MAGA movement in the U.S. The recent defeats of established centrist parties across the political spectrum — the LDP-Komeito coalition, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and others — in the country's national elections symbolize how this wave has finally begun to reach Japan.

Viewed this way, the Knessetization of the nation's parliament seems almost inevitable. This is because Japan too is seeing a diversification of voter consciousness and the domestic political environment, driven by widening disparities or the proliferation of social media. The conditions enabling the existing political elite to maintain large parties as in the past are rapidly disappearing. So, is there a way to stabilize Japan's politics under a system of coalition governments dominated by numerous small parties?

In Israel's case, to achieve domestic stability, a “national unity” government was attempted in the 1980s and a direct election of the prime minister was introduced from 1996 to 2001. But the former did not last long and the latter actually led to the weakening of executive power, the decline of the two major parties and the deepening fragmentation of small parties, with neither proving successful. More recently, in 2021, an unprecedented “superunity government” was attempted, uniting far-right, centrist, liberal and Arab parties against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This too proved short-lived. Even in Israel, “coalitions of convenience” ultimately fail.

Contemporary Israel is polarized into two blocs: the right-wing and religious parties supporting Netanyahu and the extremely diverse parties opposing him.

Nevertheless, the very fact the Israeli leader has held on to the premiership for so long suggests some sort of political genius. Unfortunately, however, Japan currently lacks politicians like Netanyahu. If things continue this way, the “Knessetization” of Japan's Diet is likely to persist for the foreseeable future.