Is Japan drifting toward fragmented and ineffective politics?

As widely expected, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito suffered a crushing defeat in Sunday's Upper House election. While the liberal parties struggled to gain ground, the conservative Democratic Party for the People and Sanseito, a populist right-wing party, significantly increased their seats.

Influential LDP figures have started working behind the scenes to oust Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and find his successor. Despite this, Ishiba has not only refused to resign but has repeatedly stated his intention to stay on, citing the responsibility of the largest party as a bizarre justification. How long he can cling to power will depend on his political skills, but even if he succeeds in staying in office, it will not be a matter of years or months, but more likely just weeks at most.

Like Ishiba’s political future, Japan's parliamentary politics is also facing uncertainty, particularly its Cabinet system. If things continue as they are, Japan's Parliament may rapidly be “Knessetized,” that is, and with apologies to my friends in Israel, become increasingly unstable.

In Israel, the threshold for winning seats is currently 3.25% of the total votes, making it relatively easy for multiple factions to secure seats, resulting in a proliferation of small parties. Could Japan’s legislature also move in the same direction?

Israel’s Knesset includes groups with a wide range of ideologies, from the religious right to the secular left, as well as Arab blocs, making it difficult to form coalitions and reach agreements. Could Japan face similar challenges in the future?

Due to the proliferation of many interests, it is nearly impossible for a single party to secure a majority, necessitating the formation of coalition governments, which tends to lead to political instability. Is Japan's parliamentary Cabinet system capable of withstanding that kind of fragmentation?

In a system with many small parties, even minor players can hold the balance of power in forming coalitions. Could this cause some of those entities in Japan to threaten withdrawal of coalition support over specific issues or to make demands that push through extreme policies?

In the Knesset, the instability of such coalitions often leads to short-lived governments and frequent general elections. Could this trend also emerge in Japan, potentially hindering long-term policy decisions and actions while creating political vacuums?

In fact, some political scientists and commentators in Japan believe that small parties can now focus on specific issues and win votes through the use of social media and that the country is now moving toward a multiparty coalition system.

Nevertheless, concerns persist. Specifically, the following two points are of greatest importance:

First, could the rise of the Sanseito lead to discrimination against foreign nationals?

According to a public opinion survey conducted before the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, the top issues of concern were rising prices followed by employment and wages, health care, welfare and nursing care. People from overseas and inbound tourism ranked seventh at 17.1%.

Given that only 11.7% of respondents cited education and child care as their top issue, it seems many voters in Japan are currently concerned about issues related to foreign residents and nationals. It is also striking that about 20% of these voters said they planned to vote for Sanseito.

Sanseito's platform states: “We will utilize the wisdom of our forebears to create a peaceful nation united under the emperor ... pursuing the independence and prosperity of Japan and contributing to the development of humanity,” and “Utilizing Japan's spirit and traditions to create a model of a harmonious society.” Based on this, the openly racist or neo-Nazi tendencies toward excluding or hating non-natives, which are seen in some far-right parties in Europe, do not appear to be prominent in Sanseito, at least at this stage.

Much of the populist right-wing party’s recent rise can be attributed to voters who wanted to punish the LDP. Those votes did not go to the main opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, but instead to Sanseito. This also shows the success of an election tactic that tapped into a simple sense of unfairness and the belief that while wealthy foreign visitors are coming to Japan through inbound tourism and enjoying the luxuries the country has to offer, ordinary Japanese people have seen no improvement in their lives over the past 30 years. However, this does not mean Sanseito will never pose a risk in the future.

Second, will multiparty coalition politics become inevitable in Japan?

The LDP’s support base is gradually eroding and none of the opposition groups have reached 10% popular support. It seems unlikely that a single opposition force that can seriously compete for power will emerge anytime soon. In addition, recent elections show that building an online support base through social media has become a decisive factor, replacing the old “grassroots” model rooted in local communities. In this respect, the LDP and Komeito may have underestimated Sanseito’s campaign tactics.

Decades have passed since Japan’s political reforms in the late 20th century. However, those reforms primarily targeted interest-driven politics, weak leadership and rampant corruption. As a result, electoral changes were insufficient and instead of establishing a two-party system, the number of political parties has actually increased. In this environment, a clear democracy with real “regime change” remains unlikely to take hold.

Will Japan’s parliamentary politics, like in the West, decline amid rising populism and anti-elite sentiment that panders to the masses? Or will it undergo a new political realignment and build a distinct form of parliamentary democracy? The future of Japan’s politics likely depends on the wise choices of the nation's voters over the next decade.