Has the age of populism finally reached Japan?

For many years, it has been common knowledge that Japan is the only Group of Seven member that is immune to political populism.

This conventional wisdom is now being shaken up. While public attention was still focused on the aftermath of the general election in Japan, or the U.S. presidential election, a by-election was held for the governorship in Hyogo Prefecture in the Kansai region. Contrary to the expectations of many media reports, the former governor, who had lost his job following a unanimous vote of no confidence by the local assembly over a political scandal, made a comeback.

This unexpected result has raised many questions. How did a politician who lost his job due to scandal get reelected? Were media reports about the former governor's scandal inaccurate? Why did voters sympathize with the former governor or believe conspiracy theories spread by political opponents on social media during the election campaign? And, most of all, has the wave of “populism” and “demagogy” sweeping through Western politics finally reached Japan's domestic politics? The questions seem endless.

These are tough questions to answer — even for close followers of Japanese politics.

The turmoil began with the emergence of a whistleblower document that raised questions about the actions of Motohiko Saito, the young governor of Hyogo, in his 40s. Major media outlets covered the document, which detailed allegations against Saito, including unreasonable personnel decisions, violations of the Public Office Election Law and a local public officers law, soliciting gifts, pressuring individuals to purchase tickets for political fundraising events, misusing public funds and engaging in “power harassment.” The whistleblower was later found dead.

A media circus ensued and the Hyogo Prefectural Assembly passed a unanimous vote of no-confidence against Saito in September. This left him with the options of either resigning, losing his job or dissolving the assembly and calling a snap election. Saito chose the latter and announced he would run in the by-election.

Although he was initially at a disadvantage, arguments in defense of the governor began to grow, along with increasing sympathy for him on social media. Narratives emerged claiming that the whistleblower had tried to bring down the governor by spreading rumors and lies, and that the mainstream media had been complicit. The major media often avoided reporting on this phenomenon, citing obligations to maintain neutrality. In the end, the former governor was reelected, winning by more than 100,000 votes over the runner-up.

According to exit polls, many young independent voters voted for the former governor based on information they ascertained via social media. A survey by the Asahi Shimbun found that many of them expressed distrust toward newspapers and television news programs, citing their lack of coverage of such discourse online.

In response, television commentators who had criticized the former governor were forced to apologize and some pundits summed up the situation as a victory for social media and a defeat for the existing media. The chairman of NHK commented, “How can we provide appropriate information to help people make their voting decisions? We need to seriously consider how election coverage should be carried out as a public broadcaster.” The aftermath of this may continue, but the real issue is something else.

The concern here is that populist and demagogic campaigns have finally begun to succeed in Japan. There are two major trends of note that have emerged in elections worldwide in 2024. The first was a backlash against incumbent political leaders. In parliamentary elections in South Korea, the U.K., France and Japan, ruling parties suffered heavy defeats. In the U.S. and even in Iran, incumbent ruling party presidential candidates also lost. Many voters, dissatisfied and angry about recent inflation and the growing economic divide likely turned to opposition parties or challengers for answers.

The second trend is the rise of populist demagoguery in election campaigns. In the European Parliament, we have seen the rise of far-right parties; in France, the National Movement has gained support; and in the U.S., Donald Trump has been reelected.

What’s worrisome is that if we examine the recent Japanese elections in detail, we may be seeing a phenomenon similar to the frustration and anger felt by workers and farmers in Europe and the U.S. who were left behind by the IT revolution and economic globalization that followed the end of the Cold War. I am afraid that this anger is finally beginning to be felt by independent voters in Japan.

Actually, this phenomenon is not limited to Hyogo Prefecture. Ahead of the Tokyo gubernatorial election in July, a relatively unknown young newcomer, Shinji Ishimaru, the former mayor of the city of Akitakata in Hiroshima Prefecture, spread his narrative via social media and finished second in the vote count, ahead of the leading candidate from an established opposition party. In the general election in October, what concerned me more than the Liberal Democratic Party's defeat was the fact that a far-left party led by a young former actor, along with two hard-line conservative mini-parties dissatisfied with the LDP, all increased their number of seats.

In a previous article in this column, I wrote that the far-right forces in Europe and the "Trump phenomenon" in the United States are essentially the same, and that Japan today is experiencing a similar sense of inequality and dissatisfaction. This dissatisfaction, which began with the "lost 30 years" in the 1990s, is significant. The real reason behind the LDP's crushing defeat this time should be seen as "dissatisfaction with the established political parties," much like what we've seen in Western countries.

If that’s the case, the political significance of the Hyogo governor’s comeback may be even greater than imagined. If the major media, in their overemphasis on political neutrality, allow demagogues to spread lies on social media — where neutrality is not required — then the general public could unwittingly become victims of populism and be left unsure of whom to trust. In this respect, Japan must continue to differentiate itself from other Western countries.