What does Trump's victory mean for Japan?

This year's U.S. presidential election ended nearly 24 hours after the votes started being counted.

No U.S. media outlet could have predicted that the result would be known so quickly. The coverage of the vote from Tokyo, as well as the way American TV stations reported the news, was strikingly different. While CNN’s reporting on Donald Trump’s victory was somber and quiet, almost like a wake, at FOX News, it seemed like they were popping champagne bottles in celebration, as if they had just won the World Series.

As a result, the global backlash against incumbent politicians that marked elections in 2024 was also reflected in the U.S. presidential vote. In other words, rather than Trump “winning,” we should view it as the incumbent, Vice President Kamala Harris, “losing.” As for the reasons behind her defeat, I’ll leave that analysis to experts in the U.S. For now, I can only offer the following observations:

Harris seized a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity after U.S. President Joe Biden announced in late July that he would not run for reelection and she skillfully transformed herself politically. However, once someone has “reinvented” themselves, the disguise sooner or later, is bound to slip. It seems that just before she could work her next political "magic trick," her mask was revealed. The political ramifications of her failure to win will be enormous.

A week before the election, I appeared on a news program in Osaka, predicting that, as a political scientist, I thought a "Trump victory" was likely, but as a historian, I hoped "Harris would win."

I have also frequently stated publicly that there were only two possible outcomes for this election: either "Trump would win," or "Trump would refuse to accept his defeat." Looking back, the only positive outcome is that we avoided the latter scenario. However, I find the prospect of Trump winning and continuing as president for the next four years to be rather depressing.

While pundits have focused on division in the United States, the country has been fundamentally split into two distinct worlds since before its founding.

What makes the United States “American” is its unique past in which the idealism of the North has triumphed over the South at crucial moments in its history, such as the 18th-century War of Independence, the 19th-century Civil War and the 20th-century Civil Rights Movement.

The recent “Trump phenomenon” represents a fourth major challenge in U.S. history. This is why I believed a Harris victory was historically necessary for the United States to maintain its distinct national identity and values.

In that sense, the outcome of this election may mark the beginning of the end of the era of American exceptionalism. With Trump’s reelection and Republican control over both houses of Congress and the Supreme Court, there is growing concern that the United States could descend into political instability.

Even though China must be laughing over the outcome of the election, this is a very serious security situation that should concern not only regional players in Europe and the Middle East, but also those in the Indo-Pacific region.

In this context, Washington and Tokyo must now work together to strengthen their ability to deter Beijing in the ongoing competition between the two allies and China. However, it’s uncertain whether Trump himself is fully aware of or grasps the seriousness of the issues at stake.

Given the president-elect’s track record, it seems unlikely that his approach to security — one that prioritizes his personal interests over those of the United States, its allies and the broader alliance structure — will change in the future.

In particular, it is surprising that the leader of a country with the world’s most powerful military doesn't know how to use it, making decisions about military action based on his personal interests and preferences.

Moreover, Beijing is well aware of this and will never forget that during his first term in office, Trump chose not to impose sanctions on some Chinese companies in exchange for China’s purchase of U.S. agricultural products.

Under such delicate international circumstances, the combination of a second Trump administration and the new unstable and weak Japanese government is extremely unfortunate.

However, I am cautiously optimistic for the following reasons: First, there are still capable individuals in the Japanese Foreign Service with experience from the first Trump administration. Second, those within the Trump administration surely understand that the Japan-U.S. relationship is crucial for winning the competition with China. Third, and perhaps this is just wishful thinking, I believe that Trump, now set to serve his second term as president, will not be as reckless as he was in his first term.

Even if the U.S. begins to follow a path of decline, that is the will of the American electorate, and as a democracy, that will must be respected.

America’s allies have no choice but to take this reality seriously and recommence efforts to build better relations with the incoming U.S. administration. Similarly, and of great importance, the U.S.’ strategic competitors should never underestimate or doubt the “America First” policies of a second Trump administration.