Media International Exchange 2024.11.18
The echo-chamber effect fueling social division and U.S.-China conflict and the spiritual pillar of the Japanese people
JBpress(2024年10月17日)に掲載
The U.S. presidential election is just around the corner, and Japan is also heading to a House of Representatives election on October 27.
On the eve of the public announcement of the House of Representatives election, the leaders of each party appeared together on a TV news program to express their political stances, policies, etc.
Although it was not in the form of a debate between party leaders, I was impressed by the calm manner in which they expressed their opinions compared to the emotional exchange of accusations between U.S. presidential candidates Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
In the case of a confrontation between two major political parties in the U.S., it is very difficult to engage in constructive discussion because the majority of supporters of each party defend the position of the party they support.
Currently in Japan, the LDP slush fund scandal has become a major election issue. The LDP’s handling of the matter has been criticized even by many LDP supporters.
Even if a similar scandal were to arise within the Republican Party in the U.S., if former President Trump were to present a view or countermeasure, the majority of his supporters would support it and only a small number of supporters would criticize it.
Few people would listen to criticism from the Democrats. Partisan antipathy is deeper and society is divided in the U.S.
In Japan, however, it is believed that there are a considerable number of LDP supporters who are willing to listen to criticism from the opposition.
This is because Japanese voters are not influenced by the claims of the political parties they support, but rather weigh up pros and cons themselves based on generally available information. They are willing to accept even critical opinions of the parties they support to some extent.
This seems to have prevented the division of Japanese society.
It has been pointed out that one of the causes of the social divide in the U.S. owing to the fierce conflict between the supporters of the two major political parties is the difference in the perception of facts caused by online information.
In general, Democrats use Facebook (FB) as their primary source of information, while Republicans use X (formerly Twitter) as their primary source.
Because each news source provides information that suits the preferences of each party's supporters, you feel good about understanding various events so long as you get information from sources that match your party affiliation.
Conversely, if you access the source that is supported by supporters of the opposite party, you will often see unpleasant information, so you will stop viewing it.
It is said that both FB and X tend to focus on pleasing their readers rather than objectively conveying facts, because they can make money as commercial enterprises by continuing to distribute information that pleases their followers who prefer their respective information.
The more partisan they become, the more likely they are to meet followers' tastes and be welcomed by them.
This mechanism divides information in U.S. society and causes the people’s perception of the facts to differ depending on the party they support.
The phenomenon in which people rely exclusively on information tailored to their particular preferences and have difficulty accepting other objective factual perceptions is called a filter bubble.
The phenomenon of sharing biased information to form an exclusive group is called a cyber cascade.
Meanwhile, “echo chamber” refers to the phenomenon in which people come to believe that their opinions are generally correct as they continue to exchange opinions with only those who have similar opinions to their own.
If people fall prey to these phenomena, they will come to believe that all those with different opinions from their own are based on a wrong perception of the facts, and therefore constructive discussions on policies, etc. will not be possible.
They come to believe that the opinions of the opposing party are not worth listening to because their perception of the facts is wrong in the first place.
Echo chambers are not limited to the domestic antagonisms that divide the Democrats and Republicans.
Understanding of China in Washington, D.C. is also being distorted by the echo chamber.
Until last year, for example, the view that China would unify Taiwan by force by 2027 was shared as common knowledge in Washington, D.C.
A majority of prominent China experts in the U.S. believe that it is unlikely.
To begin with, more than 80% of the general public in Taiwan do not seek independence from China for the time being, preferring to maintain the status quo.
Beijing fully understands that China will be isolated in the world if it unifies Taiwan by force, despite Taiwan not declaring independence.
If Beijing pushes ahead with unification with Taiwan through military action, major Japanese, U.S., and European enterprises will either withdraw from the Chinese market or drastically review their investment stance in China.
If that happens, the Chinese economy, which is highly dependent on foreign investment, will inevitably be faced with serious depression for a long time.
With the end of the high-growth period around the end of 2021, the Chinese economy has entered a phase of instability. Given that Beijing is currently struggling to manage its economic policies, a significant contraction in investment in China by foreign firms would be a fatal blow to the Chinese economy.
It would affect public confidence in the Communist Party itself.
A comprehensive assessment of these circumstances suggests that China is extremely unlikely to move toward military unification unless Taiwan declares independence.
In Washington, D.C., however, only a limited number of people were willing to listen to such objective views, and those who did express them in public were either ignored or denied the opportunity to speak out.
As a result, hard-line views on China heated up in Washington, D.C., last year owing to the echo-chamber effect, increasing the risk of an armed conflict between the U.S. and China, which had to be contained.
Since the U.S.-China summit in November last year, the Biden administration has been working to restore communication through high-level U.S.-China dialogue.
In line with this policy, the U.S. has refrained to some extent from remarks and deeds that could provoke China, and discussions based on the premise of China-Taiwan unification through military action by 2027 have calmed down.
A common factor in the division of U.S. society and the escalation of the U.S.-China conflict is the emphasis on ideological confrontation.
If people continue constructive discussions on domestic policy issues, diplomatic and trade issues, and other issues based on their objective recognition of facts, it is highly likely that a consensus will be formed under a certain level of compromise.
However, if ideological conflicts are emphasized, people will come to believe that all claims made by their counterparts are intended to reinforce the ideology of the counterparts.
The only way to deny the counterparts’ ideology is to completely deny the counterparts’ claims.
If such ideological confrontation is the premise, constructive discussion becomes very difficult.
This is the formula of the recent confrontation between the Democrats and the Republicans, and it also constitutes the background to the U.S. hard-line stance on China and its insistence on a decoupling policy.
Many experts and intellectuals in the U.S. have criticized such pointless partisan conflicts and unconstructive foreign and trade policies.
But it is very difficult to convince people who are trapped in the echo chamber, and the situation in Washington, D.C. has not improved.
President Ronald Reagan was a prominent politician who did not cause such divisions in postwar U.S. politics and was widely trusted by the American people.
Each of the 10 or more departments within the U.S. government, including the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the State Department, and the Department of Defense, has its own intelligence organization, and each organization usually does not share the classified information it has with other intelligence organizations within the government.
It is said that only during the Reagan administration did they share information with each other.
That was because all departments tried to unite to support President Reagan's policies.
As is witnessed by this fact, President Reagan's leadership was outstanding even within the U.S. government.
His public approval rating was above 60% even when he left office, and polls since 2000 have ranked him as the greatest postwar president.
I asked an international political scientist who worked in the Reagan administration and knew President Reagan's personality well what characterized him.
The answer was “integrity,” which was supported by President Reagan’s Christian faith.
According to a Gallup survey, the percentage of Protestants in U.S. society fell from 71% of the population in 1955 to 47% in 2014-2017.
During this period, the percentage of Catholics slid only slightly from 24% to 22%. However, Catholic church attendance (the percentage of people who go to church once a week) tumbled from 75% in 1955 to 39% in 2014-2017 (the comparative data for Protestants remained mostly unchanged in the low 40%s).
The above-mentioned international political scientist states that this has greatly affected the spiritual foundation of the U.S.
The common denominator of religions is the awareness of absolute existence.
If people are aware of the Absolute, they will become humble. This becomes the basis for each person's introspection, and they become honest and sincere with themselves.
Based on this attitude, they become able to control their own personal feelings with reason, and it has the effect of encouraging them to use the idea of altruism as their own behavioral guidelines.
When such a person becomes a leader, people around him/her will want to do something for him/her. A prime example would be President Reagan.
People who trusted President Reagan were not limited to those in the U.S.
Soviet Union Communist Party General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev and Japanese Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone also trusted President Reagan.
Looking around at the politicians of the world's major countries today, we cannot find anyone who is as widely respected both at home and abroad as President Reagan was.
This has led to a situation where the division of domestic society and the world cannot be stopped. The aforementioned international political scientist points out that the reason for this is a lack of integrity among leaders.
Japanese people have many opportunities to visit temples and shrines to put their hands together to pray, such as on New Year's Day, when attending memorial services for the dead, and while traveling.
When praying to God and Buddha, everyone has the Absolute in mind.
Many Japanese also understand the importance of introspecting and disciplining their own behavior by saying "Otento-sama (the solar deity/Heaven) is watching." In doing so, they are humble in heart.
Japanese people have, through introspection based on a humble attitude, built a spiritual foundation that values honesty and sincerity.
Honesty makes them sensitive to lying to themselves, and if they deceive their own mind, they feel pangs of conscience. This is the spiritual foundation of the Japanese people.
If this spiritual foundation is widely shared, it will help avoid echo chambers. Of course, the spread of anti-Chinese sentiment in Japan today can also be defined as an echo chamber.
However, this has not led to as extreme a hard-line stance toward China or decoupling policy as in the U.S.
There are also conflicts between political parties in Japan, but they have not turned into extreme ideological confrontation and emotional exchanges of accusations as in the U.S.
This is thought to be due, to a certain extent, to the entrenched culture that values honesty and sincerity as the spiritual foundation of the Japanese people.
As we move further into the 21st century, the world is approaching a major turning point, moving away from the unipolar hegemony of the U.S. toward a multipolar world.
As economic globalization advances, mutual cooperation among countries is becoming increasingly important.Under these circumstances, we need leaders who stand out for their integrity in order to heal the pointless divisions created by ideological confrontation.
I hope such leaders will emerge and contribute to the stabilization of global society.