Putin’s Pyongyang visit, pivotal talks and a generational shift reshape regional dynamics

In recent weeks, geo-strategic tensions in Northeast Asia have quietly, yet surely, deepened.

On June 13 and 14, another round of an Extended Deterrence Dialogue between the United States and Japan was held in Wyoming. On Tuesday, South Korea and China held their first sub-Cabinet level security talks in Seoul. Then the next day, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited North Korea for the first time in 24 years where he held talks with Kim Jong Un. These events could not have happened by coincidence.

During this period, I was fortunate to be visiting Seoul for the first time in eight years. The main purpose of my visit was to attend a conference on trilateral cooperation among Japan, South Korea and China that was organized by a group called the Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat. The trilateral framework began in 1999 and now the group's headquarters is located in Seoul. It is an inconspicuous but very important international organization that serves as an effective confidence-building tool among the three nations.

On this trip, I noticed changes in South Korea's foreign and security policy postures. Specifically, Seoul seems to be starting to recognize China as a potential future threat. Beyond the current bilateral frameworks, we need a more permanent security mechanism involving Japan, South Korea and the U.S. This will require further improvement in the bilateral relations between Japan and South Korea.

Russia-North Korea summit

During Putin's visit, he expressed gratitude for North Korea's support for Russia, particularly regarding the Ukraine issue. The North Korean leader, for his part, praised the bilateral relations, stating they have entered "a new period of prosperity." The two leaders signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty, which includes a mutual assistance clause in the event of aggression against either party, marking an "important and historic moment for bilateral relations." Kim said it showed that the ties between the two nations have risen to a "new high level of alliance."

Seoul responded by calling it “sophistry to promise military cooperation in anticipation of a pre-emptive attack by the international community, which will never happen,” and stated that it will reconsider its previous policy of not providing Ukraine with lethal weapons. Although many domestic and foreign press reports have labeled the just-signed Russia-North Korea treaty as a "new threat to the region," my perspective is somewhat different.

The move by Russia and North Korea this time is tactical in nature and hardly strategic. Some pundits have expressed concern over the fact that the new treaty stipulates that in the event of an attack on either side, Russia and North Korea will immediately provide military and other assistance using all means at their disposal in accordance with Article 51 of the U.N. Charter. Such language, however, differs little from the Soviet-era 1961 Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance.

Certainly, both Russia and North Korea need support, including military assistance, from each other, but Moscow has no intention of fighting alongside Pyongyang in a second Korean War against allied U.S. and South Korean forces, while North Korea is unlikely to deploy troops to Ukraine.

Is this a relief? Probably not. The level and quality of military technology that Russia might provide to North Korea would undoubtedly enhance its military capabilities; therefore, cooperation among the U.S., Japan and South Korea will be more crucial than ever.

China-South Korea security talks

At the China-South Korea diplomatic and security dialogue in Seoul, the South Koreans expressed "deep concern" over Putin's visit to North Korea, noting that rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula also run "against China's interests."

The Chinese, however, reportedly stated that "China will play a constructive role (in resolving the Korean Peninsula issue)" and that Beijing's policy on the matter remains the same. Some pundits view Putin's visit as a "blow to China," but my view also differs from this.

China's strategic interest is primarily focused on its relationship with the U.S.; therefore, Beijing has been careful not to appear to be openly supporting Moscow in the Ukraine conflict despite providing various forms of military and nonmilitary assistance to Russia.

However, China also believes it will be detrimental to its interests if Russia were to lose the war in Ukraine. Therefore, Beijing may not necessarily oppose expanded military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang. China understands and perhaps believes that North Korea will ultimately remain dependent on China for support.

Japan-South Korea relations

My outlook on the future of Japan-South Korea relations has been somewhat pessimistic. The 386 Generation in South Korea, born in the 1960s and active in pro-democracy protests during the 1980s, holds anti-American, anti-Japanese and pro-communist sentiments. This group resembles Japan's 'New Left’ radicals of the 1960s and 1970s, who are now mostly in their late 70s and retired from active political engagement.

In contrast, the 386 Generation in South Korea, still in their 50s and early 60s, remain politically active. Consequently, some believe that reconciliation in Japan-Korea relations is unlikely over the next two decades.

The validity of this hypothesis, I suppose, may depend on the political awareness of young people in their 20s and 30s in South Korea today.

But now, the progressive 386 Generation, who supported the Roh Moo-hyun and Moon Jae-in administrations, are now being referred to as the "586 Generation."

Younger Koreans in their 20s and 30s, on the other hand, appear to be more pragmatic and logical, possibly influenced by the challenging economic conditions they face rather than exhibiting the emotional characteristics typical of the older generation.

The South Korean youth appear to be slowly but surely becoming more conservative compared to previous generations. It remains to be seen whether the improvement of Japan-Korea relations will take root under the Yoon Suk-yeol administration, but changes in relations between the two countries may begin to occur even before the 386 Generation starts retiring.