"Tokyo-Cambridge Gazette: Politico-Economic Commentaries" No.11 (September 1, 2014)

　A spectacular rise of China, setting aside the issue of being peaceful or oppositely clamorous, has changed the image of China held by surrounding countries because of its sheer size and the rapid pace of its economic development and military modernization. Japan, the United States, and China have long searched for amicable paths for their military-to-military relationships through their confidence building measures (CBMs) since the end of the Cold War. The three countries have to transform the current state of competitive irrationality to competitive rationality by discouraging escalatory confrontations. To date, however, these paths have been fragile and sometimes unfruitful. This short essay tries to briefly review military-to-military CBMs among the three countries to overcome the asymmetric nature of the trilateral relationships. First, the essay examines briefly the current geopolitical backdrops to gain a better understanding of the trilateral CBMs. Then it assesses the effectiveness of U.S.-China CBMs, and analyzes factors ascribable to CBM successes and failures. Having understood the difficulties associated with the CBMs, it tries to identify the significance of Japan-China CBMs, with a special emphasis of the current and future role of the Chu-sei-kon (中政懇) (short for the Chugoku Seikei Kondankai (中国政経懇談会), or the Council on Political and Economic Affairs of China)...