Decarbonization and Geopolitics in the Middle East ~ Insights and Reflections ~

On Friday, May 10th, the Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS) held a public seminar, “Decarbonization and Geopolitics in the Middle East” at The Industry Club of Japan, where around 50 attendees from governments, companies, research institutes, universities, and other organizations gathered.

The seminar reported on the findings of “the Study Group on Decarbonization, the Middle East, and Energy Geopolitics” (“the Study Group”), and raised questions about the changes in geopolitics in the Middle East amid ongoing decarbonization. Following the keynote speech delivered by Mr. Marwan Ahmed Alnaqbi, Deputy Chief of Mission, representing the UAE Embassy in Tokyo and a presentation of the study results by the Study Group, Mr. Nobuhisa Degawa, NHK Chief Commentator and Mr. Shuji Hosaka, former Director of JIME-IEEJ, both members of the Study Group, joined a panel discussion moderated by Mr. Nobuo Tanaka, chairperson of the Study Group.

Against the backdrop of ongoing issues such as the Israeli invasion of Gaza last year and escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, the seminar was held at a timely moment. As the conflict in Gaza has intensified, the Middle East has attracted significant attention from the global community.　Many opinions were expressed from the floor, and the feedback of the audience on the seminar reflected their high level of interest and very favorable evaluation. This article describes what the organizers of the seminar have considered based on the discussions at the seminar that include Q & A session.

Reaffirming the Importance of the Middle East

Mr. Degawa presented on how the Gaza conflict threatens to expand across the Middle East. These escalating incidents include attacks by Iran and Israel on one another and the killing of a senior member of Hezbollah, the pro-Iranian Shiite Islamic group, by Israeli airstrikes. In light of these recent events, the discussions of the seminar focused more on geopolitics than decarbonization. This, however, brought us the opportunity to reaffirm that there are various axes of ethnic, religious, and sectarian divides in this region and that, as history has shown, conflicts in this unstable region may affect global affairs, potentially becoming the epicenter of international conflicts.

The importance of decarbonization sometimes obfuscates the reality that, at least in the short-term, fossil fuels will continue to play an important role in stable energy supply during the transition to net-zero. The United States is almost independent in the supply of crude oil and natural gas because of the shale revolution. In contrast, Japan and East Asia depend heavily on the Middle East for fossil fuel supplies. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Europe has moved away from Russia, and begun replacing its energy supply from fossil fuel producers in the Middle East. As a result, the globe is increasingly dependent on oil and gas produced in the Middle East. In other words, the importance of the Middle East as an energy supply base is increasing now more than ever before.

Climate Change and the Middle East

As Mr. Hosaka discussed, global warming and climate change have a critical impact on the Middle East including the Gulf region. Temperatures in the Middle East often exceed 50℃ during the summer. If substantive measures to counter global warming are not taken soon, the temperatures in some parts of the region might exceed 60℃ with high humidity, rendering them uninhabitable for human beings. For example, the pilgrimage to Mecca during the summer is naturally harsh. If climate change continues unabated, the pilgrimage rituals would need to be altered. Furthermore, the Middle East, including the Gulf region, is said to be vulnerable to property damage resulting from climate change. In general, drainage facilities for roads are inadequately developed in this region, so roads are highly likely to flood if a slight increase in rainfall occurs. Should a large-scale flood or giant cyclone occur, the damage would be catastrophic. In addition, the island states and small coastal nations face imminent risk of land shrinkage due to rising sea levels.

Such large-scale natural disasters caused by global warming and climate change, can be a major factor in support of decarbonization efforts in the Middle East. Amid the generational shift in the ruling class in the Gulf oil-producing countries, in 2016 Saudi Arabia published “Vision 2030,” its national plan to break away from a fossil-fuel dependent fiscal and economic structure. Currently, Saudi Arabia is aiming to move their initiatives into full gear by adding the goal of decarbonization.

The decarbonization policies implemented by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both major oil-producing countries, are in progress. These two countries currently lead the Middle East in developing clean energy generation. According to Mr. Alnaqbi, the UAE has succeeded in building the sustainable urban development project known as Masdar City and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 4,800 tons by using renewable energy, with the aim of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. In 2021, Saudi Arabia launched the Saudi Green Initiative, a project aiming for decarbonization, for example, through renewable energy transitions, and is in the process of building NEOM, a futuristic city that aims for sustainable development. Looking towards the future, Saudi Arabia aims to realize the world’s largest scale production of green hydrogen utilizing abundant renewable energy resources.

On the other hand, however, some people are skeptical about the efficacy of decarbonization policies in oil- and gas-producing nations, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia. It remains unknown to what extent countries that have long relied on fossil fuel exports for national finances, will reform their structures and achieve economic diversification. Nevertheless, they have, in fact, no option but to take initiatives to promote decarbonization to mitigate the natural disasters brought about by climate change. Therefore, the renewable energy efforts of the Gulf oil- and gas-producing countries would potentially be reinforced further.

Japan’s Relationship with the Middle East

Finally, the seminar addressed Japan’s relationship with the Middle East. Interest in the Middle East is declining not only among the Japanese business community, but also among the general public. At the same time, the Middle East’s interest in Japan is also stagnating. However, it should not be forgotten that Japan still relies on the Gulf region of the Middle East for over 90% of its oil imports. As Mr. Degawa mentioned, the shift in the perception of Japan among Middle Eastern people may be caused not only by the relatively declining presence of Japanese companies in the Middle East. But that the Japanese government’s failure to respond appropriately to the Gaza conflict, in accordance with international humanitarian law and provide proper support and assistance to the Palestinian people, has also contributed to growing disengagement in the region. In other words, Japan’s appearance to follow the U.S. pro-Israel policy is affecting this shift in perception. Since the first oil crisis, Japan has maintained friendly and close relations with the oil-producing countries of the Middle East. Japan has never participated in any invasion or war in its relations with the Middle East and, as a peaceful and technology-oriented nation, has contributed to the political stability and economic development of the Middle East. We should once again reaffirm the relationship that Japan and the Middle East have built up, and consider what kind of beneficial relationship Japan will maintain and develop with the Middle East.

Conclusion

Now, seven months after its onset, the Gaza conflict still has the risk of destabilizing the entire Middle East. The outlook for the situation in the Middle East remains unpredictable due to the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran triggered by this conflict. On the other hand, in the sphere of energy policy, it is necessary to carefully observe and analyze how the rising geopolitical risks now seen in the Middle East will affect decarbonization. As described earlier, the Middle East region is heavily affected by large-scale natural disasters caused by global warming and climate change. As decarbonization accelerates globally, the Gulf oil- and gas-producing countries will continue pursuing various decarbonization policies, including national visions aiming to diversify their economies with the goal of lessening their reliance on fossil fuels. The promotion of decarbonization will lead to a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and the avoidance of large-scale natural disasters. It is expected that these countries will further reinforce their initiatives toward decarbonization.

On the other hand, regarding Japan’s relationship with the Middle East, the Middle Eastern countries appear to be disappointed with Japan for failing to take a clear stance on the Gaza conflict. It is important to widely discuss what Japan can do to address problems facing the Middle East, such as the Gaza conflict, and what Japan should do to enhance its relationship with the Middle East.

Toward the future, we should deepen discussions by broadly sharing our attention to and interest in the Middle East. To this end, it is essential to enhance media coverage on what is happening in the Middle East and how the rest of the world is responding. Additionally, collaborating with Middle East experts and specialized organizations, and relevant companies to hold discussions among wider groups of citizens, including, for instance, youth and women, would serve as a basis for considering Japan’s unique Middle East policies.