WP  Global Economy  2024.10.15

Working Paper(24-021E)Inflation Expectations and Spending: Evidence from an Experiment and Bank Transaction Data in Japan

This is a working paper.

Economic Theory

This study investigates whether information provision on inflation influences household inflation expectations and actual spending in Japan. Using a randomized controlled trial with approximately 2,500 bank account holders, I find that information provision significantly shapes inflation expectations, with respondents adjusting their expectations in line with the information received. However, this adjustment in expectations does not translate into changes in actual spending behavior, as observed through outflow transactions. These findings underscore the challenge of managing inflation expectations.

JEL Classification Number : E58, D84, D81, E21, G51
Keywords: inflation target; deflation; experiment

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Working Paper(24-021E)Inflation Expectations and Spending: Evidence from an Experiment and Bank Transaction Data in Japan