【Aging, safety net and fiscal crisis in Japan】No.327:Government is unsure of the number of at-home COVID-19 deaths

Shortly after the fourth wave of COVID-19 subsided, and the number of newly infected patients decreased to 53,672 in June 2021, the fifth wave began, and the number of newly infected patients increased to 555,572 in August (Figure 1). However, the number of deaths due to COVID-19 decreased from 1,731 in June to 849 in August. In other words, the number of deaths halved even though the number of newly infected patients increased tenfold; this is due to the fact that the aggravation rate was greatly reduced by vaccination and treatment know-how increased significantly.

However, as the number of newly infected patients increased rapidly during the 5th wave, the number of patients who were forced to stay at home or in elderly care facilities reached 135,859 by September 1 (Figure 2). The fact they cannot be admitted to a hospital, even if their symptoms worsen, has become a serious political issue. As explained in Column No.316, this reflects the fact that the number of hospital beds for COVID-19 patients has not increased, although the government made several requests to the medical community in this regard. When the opposition party asked the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare about the number of COVID-19 patient deaths at home, the Ministry said that they "don't know." As a result, the National Police Agency has been investigating deaths at home and in elderly care facilities to determine whether COVID-19 was the cause or if a crime occurred. While 250 of 849 COVID-19 deaths in August were found to be caused by COVID-19, the actual number of COVID-19 patients who died at home or in elderly facilities seems to be higher.

Figure 1: The number of new COVID-19 patients and COVID-19 deaths per month

Source: The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare

Figure 2: COVID-19 infected patients who were forced to stay at home or were monitored at a hotel

Source: The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare