【Aging, safety net and fiscal crisis in Japan】No.286: Shortage of nursing staff

As shown in Figure 1, the number of those seeking nursing jobs was 67,620 in 2018, which was much less than the 157,087 job offers. Thus, the job offer ratio to those seeking nursing jobs exceeds 2:1, and there is a large shortage of nursing staff (Column No.40). Nursing staff are classified into four job categories: registered nurses, assistant nurses, public health nurses, and midwives. The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare estimates that the number of nursing staff, which was 1,660,071 in 2016, will increase to 1,819,466 in 2025, assuming that the rate of increase will be the same as in the past (Figure 2).

One of the reasons for the shortage of nursing staff is that their working conditions are inferior to those of other occupations; for example, it is difficult to get paid leave despite the role’s high level of stress. Therefore, it is necessary to make improvements to increase paid leave for nursing staff and reduce overtime hours to incentivize people to choose this occupation. Yet, at the same time, this will increase the number of nursing staff required. The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare released an estimate of the number of nursing staff required in 2025 based on the three scenarios shown in Table 1. In scenario (3), in which overtime hours are reduced to zero and paid leave can be taken for 20 days or more per year, the number of nursing staff required would be 2,019,773. This is 11% higher than the aforementioned supply of nursing staff, which is estimated to be 1,819,466.

Figure 1 Job offer ratio of nursing staff

Source: Japanese Nursing Association

Figure 2 Estimated supply and demand of nursing staff in 2025

Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare

Table 1 Three scenarios for estimating the number of nursing staff required

Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare