Column 　Finance and the Social Security System 　2018.01.18

【Aging, safety net and fiscal crisis in Japan】No.7: Probability to Require Long-term Care Services

In this column series, Yukihiro Matsuyama, Research Director at CIGS introduces the latest information about aging, safety net and fiscal crisis in Japan with data of international comparison.
Healthcare
Yukihiro MATSUYAMA
Yukihiro MATSUYAMA
Research Director

Japan introduced the public long-term care insurance system in 2000. As Table 1 shows, this system classifies care services into five categories. The level of long-term care is determined by the time required to provide these services. For example, the reference time of Level 1 is set to 32 minutes or more and less than 50 minutes, and the reference time of Level 5 is set to 110 minutes or more.

In column No.1, I predict that long-term care expenses will expand by 2040 at a pace that greatly exceeds the increase in medical expenses. Table 2 shows the probability (the actual value as of March 2015) of being qualified for services from long-term care insurance as the precondition of the prediction. It clearly shows that long-term care needs increase beyond the age of 80.



Table 1: Classification of services to judge the necessity of long-term care

180118_matsuyama_fig01.png



Table 2: Probability of being qualified for services from long-term care insurance
(by gender, age group, and care level)

180118_matsuyama_fig02.png